Decision Support

Decision Support – Curated Guidance for Stage 1

Assess where you are in decision support to determine which stage you are in and identify the key activities you need to undertake as an air quality
manager to go to the next stage. 

The guidance below is for Stage 1.
Additional guidance for Stages 2 through 5 is being developed for future iterations of AQMx.

StageCapacityData availabilityObjectivesActivitiesSustainability Plan
01.
  • No specific
    staff
  • None / limited
  • Conduct an initial
    impact assessment
    from global databases
    or tools
  • None or global tools
    that estimate
    sectoral
    contributions or
    impacts at a national
    level
  • No central
    budget
  • Some donor-
    dependent studies
02.
  • 1 staff focused
    on this role
  • Some basic
    training on
    decision
    support tools
  • Activity data gathered
    for key sectors
  • Some air quality data
    available
  • Conduct sector-specific impact assessment
  • Use simple
    spreadsheet models and sector specific
    calculators
  • Establish
    international
    partnerships to
    develop/refine tools
    specific to local
    jurisdiction
  • Central in-kind
    support for data gathering
  • Donor-dependent
    studies
03.
  • 2-3 staff
    focused on
    this role
  • Advanced
    training on
    decision support tools
    with some
    external
    support
  • Detailed sector-specific
    data available
  • Robust air quality data
    available
  • Develop decision
    support tools specific to
    local jurisdiction
  • Dedicated national
    model with multiple
    sectors
  • Funded centrally
    in collaboration
    with emissions
    inventory
04.
  • 4-5 staff
    focused on this
    role
  • Advanced
    training on
    decision
    support tools,
    fully
    independent
  • Detailed sector-specificdata available
  • Robust air quality data available, including
    emissions inventory
  • Conduct multi-sector scenario analysis
  • Optimization of
    models or tools
    capable of conducting multi-
    sector scenario analysis

     

  • Funded centrally
    in collaboration
    with emissions
    inventory
05.
  • 5-10 staff
    focused on this
    role
  • Advanced
    research
    capacity to
    improve and
    refine tools

 

  • Ongoing data refinement for detailed sector-
    specific data
  • Robust air quality data available, including
    emissions inventory
  • Conduct detailed
    analysis for all sectors
  • Detailed national
    modeling capacity
    across all sectors.
  • Centrally funded
    policy analysis
    department

     

01 Make a plan

Decision support is a process of developing information that can help air quality agencies “make the case” for policies or programs that are needed to clean the air. Review the steps below and make sure you/your department have adequate staffing, resources, data and tools to build the case for clean air actions in your jurisdiction. Typically, an energy model might be linked to various impact assessment tools in what is called an “Integrated Assessment Framework” to provide estimates of emissions, air pollution, and other impacts. This may involve working with energy, transport, or industry authorities to gather data. These may be the same data needed to build an emission inventory, so expect overlap with steps under that area of guidance. For jurisdictions at Stage 1, a comprehensive emission inventory may not exist so data gathering for both an inventory and decision support tools can be carried out while learning about the more sophisticated tools and making use of simpler calculators that are sector-specific. Some tools have greater data requirements relative to others, but you can get a good overview of the process and data needs by learning about several potential tools in the resources below.

02 Understand your jurisdiction’s energy balance and industrial data

Given that many air pollution emissions stem from fuel combustion processes, getting an understanding of your jurisdiction’s fuel use and energy consumption is a critical starting point. The International Energy Agency (IEA) tracks energy at the global and national level, but typically there are national and subnational entities that collect and report these data. 

These entities may be allies in collecting data that is more specific to your jurisdiction. Industrial sources may include point sources like boilers, kilns and furnaces with specific stacks that can be drawn from global or national emissions inventories, but area sources – that are more common among artisanal industries or small and medium enterprises – may require local surveys or data collection from trade associations.

03 Understand your jurisdiction’s residential energy consumption

For many jurisdictions that still lack modern energy cooking services (MECS), understanding the number of households that utilize traditional cookstoves, kerosene wick lanterns or open fires for heating is a critical input. It is also essential to know the typical efficiency for both traditional cooking devices and alternatives so that scenarios can be explored in assessment tools. Beyond the technical potential assessment, there are factors such as affordability, convenience, cultural preferences, safety and more that need to be considered before launching a cookstove intervention, but gathering cost, efficiency and emission data is essential for the technical potential assessments considered here.

04 Understand your jurisdiction’s waste situation

As with clean cooking, the waste sector is often a driver of air pollution and a sector where the data may not be as easily gathered using global sources. Reach out to identify local entities with data on the composition of waste, the number of homes with access to waste collection, the number and type of open burning locations.

05 Understand your jurisdiction’s transportation sources

Like other sectors, transportation sources are important contributors to ambient air pollution. Local vehicle registration data can be an important source for ensuring a good representation of activity data within an energy model. Typically, a ministry of transportation or vehicle registration agencies will have these data. You also may need to work with public works departments or highway departments to obtain traffic counts or the number/length of roads of different types within your jurisdiction.

06 Understand your jurisdiction’s patterns of agriculture and forest use

Forest use and land clearing have significant impacts on air quality. Deforestation and land clearing for agriculture, urban development, and infrastructure projects are often linked to forest fires. As a result of land clearing practices using fire, large amounts of smoke, ash, and other harmful pollutants are released into the air, contributing to poor air quality and posing health risks to nearby communities.

Sustainable forest management practices, advanced hotspot detection and forest fire fighting methods, reforestation efforts, and the conservation of natural habitats are essential to preserving air quality and mitigating the negative impacts of forest use and land clearing on the environment. Decision support tools have a hard time incorporating these intermittent events into inventories, and therefore scenario planning tools, to quantify the benefits of reduced forest fire. However other initiatives have tried to quantify the impact of fire and ways to reduce this key source category.

07 Understand the cost of clean technology specific to your jurisdiction

While models such as LEAP or GAINS already have large databases of technology costs, these global datasets may not reflect to local costs of controls that may need to be imported or have local taxes reflected. Municipal authorities may provide the best estimates of costs of providing waste collection services, development costs for sanitary landfills, recycling centers, community composting sites and other aspects of integrated solid waste management services. Ministries of Transportation or Municipal Public Works Departments may have local cost information for roads/highways relative to alternatives such as public transportation, bus-rapid transit, non-motorized transit options.

08 Gather data to help with future projections

Creating economic activity forecasts involves analyzing various factors, including demographic data and historical land-use patterns. Demographic data, such as population size, age distribution, and income levels, are crucial in understanding the composition and dynamics of the jurisdiction’s economic growth, as they influence consumer behavior, labor force availability, and overall economic activity.

Historical land-use patterns provide insights into past development trends, urbanization patterns, and infrastructure needs, helping to project future economic growth and spatial requirements. Data on industry trends, employment rates, market demand, as well as macroeconomic indicators like GDP growth and inflation rates are essential. Consumer preferences, workforce trends, and housing needs also provide context for future development scenarios and urban planning strategies.

09 Review good practice examples of air quality program justifications

Justifying the costs of air quality programs to decision makers is crucial for ensuring the implementation and continuation of effective environmental policies. By providing a solid economic rationale, policymakers can understand the value of investing in clean air initiatives, which can lead to improved public health, reduced healthcare costs, enhanced productivity, and overall societal well-being. Quantifying the costs and benefits of air quality programs allows decision makers to make informed choices, prioritize resources effectively, and allocate funding where it is most needed.

Additionally, presenting a strong business case for these programs can garner support from various stakeholders, including businesses, communities, and advocacy groups, fostering collaboration and collective action towards achieving cleaner air and sustainable development goals. Ultimately, justifying the costs of air quality programs helps demonstrate their long-term value and impact, leading to healthier environments and prosperous societies.

10 Develop a decision support approach

Develop a planning process for the use of your energy/air quality scenario planning tool. This requires ensuring that stakeholders buy in to data, tools and the planned assessment methodology upfront (See Public Engagement and Communications guidance). This also may include identifying key uncertainties and potential future trends that might have to be reflected as limitations or through sensitivity analyses. To effectively communicate the results of these scenarios to decision-makers, clear and concise visualization techniques, such as maps, graphs, and trend analyses, should be utilized.

Presenting the implications of each scenario in terms of public health (See Health Impact Assessment guidance), environmental impacts (See Sustainable Development Benefits Assessment guidance), economic costs, and societal benefits can help decision-makers understand the consequences of different policy choices and make informed decisions to guide sustainable energy and air quality management strategies. Engaging stakeholders through workshops, presentations, and interactive tools can foster dialogue, build consensus, and facilitate the adoption of effective policies based on scenario outcomes. Your evolving use of decision support tools will extend into successive stages in an iterative cycle of air quality management planning across different regulatory approaches (See Legal Framework, Policy Design and Implementation guidance).

Curated Guidance Developed by

 

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